DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/17 10:52
Corn, Soybeans Head Lower Midday Friday
Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower and wheat is
flat to 5 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 200 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.20 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are
weaker with crude down $0.90. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down $4.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Friday with trade fading at
resistance levels and softer spread action so far with little fresh bullish
news as harvest expands into the weekend, but we have been able to bounce back
from early 7-cent lower trade. Ethanol margins will continue to struggle with
natural gas and corn costs offsetting the rise in unleaded values. South
America will continue with early full season corn planting and little weather
concerns there so far. Corn basis will likely continue to drift lower into
harvest with some isolated areas of strength that should push to above-average
pace with the warm weather near term and some rains in the western belt. On the
December contract, we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance
is the 20-day at $5.29, which we are just below at midday.
Soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from
testing $13.00 Thursday on worries about cancellations and South American
values, and weather limiting upside with another 132,000 metric tons sold to
China. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 0.30 cent to 0.40 cent lower as
product momentum fades again. Warmer weather should continue to push the crop
toward maturity. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. Trade
will watch South American weather, but widespread planting won't come until the
end of the month, depending on weather with more rains entering the forecast.
On the November soybean chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.95 with support
at the recent low at $12.65.
Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower in quiet midday trade as wheat
continues to work to consolidate action with estimates of Russian production
sliding again. The dollar is fading from the upper end of the rally yet again.
KC is at a 5-cent premium to Chicago with early week strength holding this
week, with Minneapolis at a 194-cent premium on the December in firmer action.
Weather in the Plains looks dry short term as planting gets going. KC December
on the chart has support at the 20-day at $7.10 with resistance the upper
Bollinger Band at $7.36.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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