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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/20 10:56

   Soybean Futures are Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Futures Lower

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 5 
to 7 cents higher; wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 5 
to 7 cents higher; wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is 
firmer with the S&P 350 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points lower. 
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude off .20 and 
natural gas off .07. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with 
gold up 2.00.


   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with mixed spread action as we 
bounce back off the early risk-off trade with mixed spread action so far. 
Ethanol margins will continue to work sideways with support from corn values 
short term while unleaded has faded back towards the lower end of the range 
crimping some of the anticipated spring blender gains short term with signs of 
improving travel demand. Crop development in Brazil will be watched closer as 
double-crop planting winds up with the forecast drying a little to help for now 
with potential concerns if it shows the dry season starting while Argentina 
limps toward the finish line. Weekly export inspections improved at 1.189 
million metric tons (mmt). Basis has remains flat to firmer. On the May chart, 
support is the lower Bollinger Band back below the market at $6.01, and the 
20-day moving average just above the market at $6.36.


   Soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents higher with spread action leading us back 
from early weakness. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points 
higher with crush margins trying to sustain the recent boost from oil. The 
daily export wire has been quiet as we get deeper into Brazil's prime export 
season with weekly export inspections OK seasonally at 716,618 metric tons 
(mt). Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to extend the strong 
recent movement with harvest moving along with drier weather short term likely 
to help with Argentina to catch some isolated moisture as the growing season 
winds down. New crop continues to see losses versus corn as the time to bid for 
acres grows short. Basis remains mostly sideways to soft near term. May chart 
resistance is at the $15.06 20-day moving average, which we are solidly below 
with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.44 as further resistance, and the Lower 
Bollinger Band at $14.66, which we tested overnight before bouncing.


   Wheat futures are 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade firming back a 
bit from early weakness with outside markets and euro values remain under 
pressure. The KC wheat areas look to remain on the shorter end of moisture over 
the next couple of weeks with short-term cold weather passing with SRW seeing 
moisture, with the Northern Plains mixed ahead of planting. World wheat weather 
remains mixed short term with India harvest starting in some areas with exports 
likely to be delayed until later. Matif wheat values are weaker again with the 
grain corridor extending for now. Weekly export inspections were improved 
slightly at 374,224 mo. On the chart, KC May has the 20-day moving average at 
support at $8.21 that we pushed above to close last week, with the Upper 
Bollinger Band well above the market at $8.74.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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