DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/18 11:44

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Mixed midday trade is seen with the market giving back some light early 
gains.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 85. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 5 points higher. 
Energies are mostly firmer with crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed with 
cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are slightly lower with gold down 
$1.

   CORN

   Corn trade is flat to a penny higher at midday after trading 3 cents higher 
early in the morning session. On the chart it appears the market is trying to 
move through nearby resistance, but is taking its time. Outside markets are 
neutral at midday, and weather is fairly benign. Cooler weather looks to hang 
around the next couple weeks with mixed moisture potential with a growing focus 
on early August weather with the advanced state of the crop. Ethanol board 
margins remain positive but have narrowed with firmer corn and weaker energy 
trade. Corn basis has been flat to firmer for the most part. On the September 
chart futures are around the 10-day at $3.47, with the 20-day at $3.53 chart 
resistance. Support is the fresh low of $3.37 1/4 scored last week which is 
also the level of the lower Bollinger Band. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is mixed at midday after some higher overnight and early-day 
session strength with soybeans continuing to try to work higher after reversing 
on Monday. Meal is mixed and bean oil is 20 to 30 points higher. Brazil remains 
at a stout premium to U.S. origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics 
issues with Brazil with premiums around $2.05, which almost equals the tariffs 
placed by China. Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead 
with crush margins remaining exceptionally strong. The daily export wire has 
remained quiet. Weather should not be a major driver near term for soybeans due 
to limited stressful forecasts but with pod fill starting beans could be more 
active based upon any forecast changes.  On the August chart the 10-day at 
$8.42 is again the first level of resistance which we were we are trading this 
morning with further support the lower Bollinger Band at 8.13 with the next 
level resistance the 20-day at 8.58.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 lower to 4 cents higher at midday with trade working to 
consolidate the attempt at an uptrend we are seeing since the report last week. 
Harvest pressure should start to fade as it winds down for the winter wheat. 
Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada with drier weather showing up 
again for some. Russian harvest continues to move along as well with yields 
remaining below last year's levels as they get into spring wheat harvest. HRW 
basis has remains solid through harvest with the better protein with offered 
premiums declining. On the September KC is just above the 20-day at $4.90 and 
the 10-day at $4.93 overnight with the 200-day at 5.11 the next level of 
resistance.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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