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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/17 10:52

   Corn, Soybeans Head Lower Midday Friday

   Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower and wheat is 
flat to 5 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 200 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.20 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are 
weaker with crude down $0.90. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold down $4.00.


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Friday with trade fading at 
resistance levels and softer spread action so far with little fresh bullish 
news as harvest expands into the weekend, but we have been able to bounce back 
from early 7-cent lower trade. Ethanol margins will continue to struggle with 
natural gas and corn costs offsetting the rise in unleaded values. South 
America will continue with early full season corn planting and little weather 
concerns there so far. Corn basis will likely continue to drift lower into 
harvest with some isolated areas of strength that should push to above-average 
pace with the warm weather near term and some rains in the western belt. On the 
December contract, we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance 
is the 20-day at $5.29, which we are just below at midday.


   Soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from 
testing $13.00 Thursday on worries about cancellations and South American 
values, and weather limiting upside with another 132,000 metric tons sold to 
China. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 0.30 cent to 0.40 cent lower as 
product momentum fades again. Warmer weather should continue to push the crop 
toward maturity. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. Trade 
will watch South American weather, but widespread planting won't come until the 
end of the month, depending on weather with more rains entering the forecast. 
On the November soybean chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.95 with support 
at the recent low at $12.65.


   Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower in quiet midday trade as wheat 
continues to work to consolidate action with estimates of Russian production 
sliding again. The dollar is fading from the upper end of the rally yet again. 
KC is at a 5-cent premium to Chicago with early week strength holding this 
week, with Minneapolis at a 194-cent premium on the December in firmer action. 
Weather in the Plains looks dry short term as planting gets going. KC December 
on the chart has support at the 20-day at $7.10 with resistance the upper 
Bollinger Band at $7.36.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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