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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          02/11 11:51

   Pressure Abounds in the Cattle Contracts

   Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the 
South at $206.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as the 
cattle contracts are trading noticeably lower, all while the nearby lean hog 
contracts continue to inch higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. 
March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.40. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 29.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Monday's higher trend was quickly forgotten about when Tuesday's market 
opened up as the live cattle contracts have been pressured from the day's 
start. Trying to pinpoint what exactly is driving the market lower remains a 
challenging task as pressure is imploding from a number of different angles: 
from traders liquidating some positioning through money-managed funds to the 
concerns about what could develop with this new strain of bird flu to the 
fundamental reality that cash prices could trade lower this week and that 
February is typically a hard month for beef demand given that it's a long time 
until grilling season. Nevertheless, the support plane that was thought to be 
established last Friday (and was upheld and respected through Monday's close) 
has been taken out through Tuesday's trade. February live cattle are down $2.37 
at $199.50, April live cattle are down $2.35 at $195.77 and June live cattle 
are down $2.10 at $191.10. Asking prices are noted in the South at $206 plus, 
but are still not established in the North and no cash cattle trade has 
developed yet.

   Tuesday's WASDE report was supportive to the cattle and beef markets of 
2025. Beef production for 2025 was increased by 775 million pounds as carcass 
weights remain historically high and just last week APHIS announced that 
Mexican cattle imports would resume, which ensures additional supply. All four 
quarters of 2025 for projected steer prices also saw an increase as steers in 
the first quarter are expected to average $205 (up $11.00 from last month), 
second quarter prices are expected to average $200 (up $6.00 from last month), 
third quarter prices are expected to average $198 (up $2.00 from last month) 
and steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $200 (up $2.00 
from last month). 2025 beef imports remained unchanged at 4,770 million pounds, 
but beef exports for 2025 were raised by 200 million pounds to 2,795 million 
pounds upon continued excellent global demand.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.88 ($322.62) and select down 
$1.62 ($312.30) with a movement of 84 loads (57.09 loads of choice, 14.38 loads 
of select, zero loads of trim and 13.00 loads of trim).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Without the technical support of the live cattle contract's higher trade, 
the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower in a dramatic manner. March 
feeders are down $3.47 at $264.65, April feeders are down $3.12 at $264.65 and 
May feeders are down $2.92 at $263.40. Unfortunately with the spot March 
contract currently trading below the market's 40-day moving average, it's 
difficult to tell how far the market will fall. Still, the market's next 
support plane is found substantially lower at $255.00.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as again the 
nearby contracts are up against resistance, wanting to take out the long-term 
resistance pressure at $92.00 but aren't confident that the market holds enough 
gusto to do so. It isn't ideal for traders either that pork cutout values are 
slightly lower this morning, but that could easily change by this afternoon. 
April lean hogs are up $0.22 at $91.85, June lean hogs are down $0.17 at 
$103.80 and July lean hogs are down $0.47 at $104.42.

   The projected lean hog index for 2/10/2025 is up $0.44 at $86.19, and the 
actual index for 2/7/2025 is up $0.36 at $85.75. Hog prices on the Daily Direct 
Afternoon Hog Report average $86.53, ranging from $81.00 to $88.75, on 1,635 
head with a five-day rolling average of $85.91. Pork cutouts total 215.36 loads 
with 183.29 loads of pork cuts and 32.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: 
down $0.69, $98.93.

   Tuesday's WASDE report was mixed for the hog and pork markets of 2025. Pork 
production for 2025 was increased by 20 million pounds thanks to higher carcass 
weights. All in all, quarterly price projections for hog prices didn't change 
much as only the first quarter of 2025 saw a slight increase as hog prices are 
now projected to average $62 (up $1.00 from last month), second quarter prices 
remained unchanged at $66, third quarter prices remained unchanged at $70 and 
fourth quarter prices remained unchanged at $56. 2025 pork imports were 
increased by 30 million pounds, and pork exports fell by 30 million pounds.

   **

   Come see DTN at the National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, Kentucky, 
Feb. 12-15. Our 2025 Global Commodity Market and Weather Outlook presentation, 
featuring Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery and Ag Meteorologist John Baranick is 
scheduled for 2:30-3:30 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 12; 8:30-10:00 a.m. Thursday, Feb. 
13; 10:00-11:00 a.m. Friday, Feb. 14. All times Eastern Standard.




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